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Should I Sell My SaaS Now or Wait?

Every SaaS founder considering an exit is asking sell now or wait? This calculator models what multiple compression, base, and expansion scenarios do to your exit value over 12 / 24 / 36 month horizons - using the same historical public-multiples data that powers the rest of this site.

Multiple Compression Stress Test

Sell now or wait? Stress-test your exit value against multiple volatility.

Public SaaS multiples have moved 81% peak-to-trough since 2021. Inputs below model your exit value if multiples compress 20%, stay flat, or expand 20% over your chosen horizon, while your ARR grows at your stated rate.

£
6.0x

Public median (SaaS Capital): 3.2x. Private SaaS transacts at ~50-70% of public median.

%

Today (sell now)

£30.00M

£5.00M ARR × 6.0x

In 24 months (£8.45M forward ARR), exit value if:

Compression (4.8x)

£40.56M

Multiples drop 20% over the horizon (mid-cycle correction) vs sell today: +£10.56M

Base case (6.0x)

£50.70M

Multiples hold at today's level, ARR grows at your stated rate

Expansion (7.2x)

£60.84M

Multiples rise 20% over the horizon (favourable market window) vs sell today: +£30.84M

Wedge analysis: The gap between the compression and expansion scenarios is £20.28M. Expansion upside versus selling today: £30.84M.

Compression / expansion bands of 20% reflect mid-cycle moves in public SaaS multiples. Peak-to-trough swings observed since 2021 are roughly 3-4x larger than this band; use 20% as a normal-cycle stress, not a black-swan scenario.

Why this matters in 2026

The SaaS Capital Index median is down 81% from its August 2021 peak (16.9x to 3.2x by June 2026), and nearly half of that arrived in the Q1 2026 AI re-rating alone. Most founders considering an exit window in 2026 are working with a multiple expectation set against either the 2021 peak (much too optimistic) or the 2022-2025 6-7x plateau (now also stale). The right framing is not what multiple do I deserve; it is what multiple is the market willing to pay across the realistic distribution of the next 24 months.

Waiting always trades two things against each other: ARR growth (a multiplier you control) versus multiple movement (a multiplier you do not). A high-growth founder can usually outrun a 20% compression. A low-growth founder cannot. The calculator above surfaces the cross-over for your specific numbers.

Where to go next

Cloud Index historyMultiple historyMultiples by growth rateFull valuation calculator

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Updated 7 June 2026